Economic Themes (2025) 63 (3) 1, 259-278
Bojan Nešić, Mirjana Gligorić Matić
Abstract: In this paper, a growth model based on the Cobb–Douglas production function is adapted to include demographic aspects of the labour factor. The model is applied to 16 Central and Eastern Europe economies, where the contribution of individual variables to economic growth in the period 1993–2019 is calculated. As expected, some of the key findings are that tangible capital, human capital, and technology have been the main drivers of the growth of these economies to date, while population change generally has a slight negative impact. The research highlights the current importance of demographic factors and points to the risk that, if current unfavourable demographic trends — such as population decline and changes in the age structure in favour of an older population — continue, these factors could become a significant determinant of economic growth slowdown in Central and Eastern European countries in the upcoming period.
Keywords: economic growth; population; demographic change; Cobb– Douglas production function; contribution to growth; Central and Eastern Europe
CONTRIBUTION OF DEMOGRAPHIC FACTOR TO ECONOMIC GROWTH IN CEE COUNTRIES
Bojan Nešić, Mirjana Gligorić Matić
Abstract: In this paper, a growth model based on the Cobb–Douglas production function is adapted to include demographic aspects of the labour factor. The model is applied to 16 Central and Eastern Europe economies, where the contribution of individual variables to economic growth in the period 1993–2019 is calculated. As expected, some of the key findings are that tangible capital, human capital, and technology have been the main drivers of the growth of these economies to date, while population change generally has a slight negative impact. The research highlights the current importance of demographic factors and points to the risk that, if current unfavourable demographic trends — such as population decline and changes in the age structure in favour of an older population — continue, these factors could become a significant determinant of economic growth slowdown in Central and Eastern European countries in the upcoming period.
Keywords: economic growth; population; demographic change; Cobb– Douglas production function; contribution to growth; Central and Eastern Europe
